Global Health Threats : Global Warming in Perspective

Some authorities have claimed that global warming is one of the most—if not the most—important public health threat of this century. They do not, however, support this assertion by comparative analysis of the relative magnitude and severity of various health threats. Such an analysis, presented here, shows that other global health threats outrank global warming at present, and are likely to continue to do so through the foreseeable future, even under the warmest scenario developed by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Exaggerated and unsupported claims about the importance of global warming risk skewing the world’s public health priorities away from real, urgent health problems. Policies curbing global warming would, moreover, increase energy prices and reduce its usage, retarding both economic development and advances in human wellbeing. That would slow advances in society’s adaptive capacity to deal not only with the effects of global warming, but all other sources of adversity. Through the foreseeable future, global health would be advanced farther, faster, more surely, and more economically if efforts are focused not on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but on reducing vulnerability to today’s urgent health problems that may be exacerbated by global warming, while increasing adaptive capacity, particularly of developing countries, through economic development. Introduction Several influential policymakers have declared that climate change is one of the defining challenges of this century. In their wake, even august publications such as have taken the position that “climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century.” Such assertions have serious implications for allocation of fiscal and human resources to address global public health problems. Societal resources devoted to curb carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions will be unavailable for other—and as will be shown—more urgent tasks including vector control, developing safer water supplies or installing sanitation facilities in developing countries, or for cancer research or drug development in developed countries. Additionally, reduction in wealth due to higher energy costs and lower energy usage could have serious consequences, not only for society’s public health, but also for its continued ability to adapt to present or future health threats. Assertions that global warming outranks other public health threats are not based upon comparative analysis of the magnitude, severity, and manageability of various health threats vying for the dubious title of the most important threat. But, absent any such analysis, how can one determine the risk ranking? This article undertakes such an analysis. It draws upon analysis of global mortality and burden of disease attributed to 26 risk factors, 1,2